FRANK FU 傅浩桓

Highlights

• Bond yield volatility surges through the Fall.

• The Canadian economy may be starting its descent into a recession.

• A Bank of Canada pivot in 2023?

Mortgage Rate Outlook

The relative calm in the mortgage markets contrasts with the unprecedented volatility in the bond market. From just the second half of October to early November, Canadian bond yields experienced three of the top 25 most significant daily moves over the past 20 years. Indeed, the bond market seems to be evaluating and re-evaluating the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate path with each data release and announcement. Interestingly, even with the still persistently high Canadian inflation in October, bond yields have fallen and are now at levels last seen in early October.

Despite the decline in bond yields from where they peaked in early October, we have not seen an adjustment to five-year fixed rates as lenders wait for a clear signal on the direction of their funding costs. If five-year bond yields...

SURREY, BC – With sales down almost seven per cent from October, and new listings off by more than 20 per cent, the Fraser Valley housing market continues its slowing trend heading into the holiday season. Despite the market slowdown, opportunities are available, as evidenced by brisk turnover time frames.

In November, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 839 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), a 6.9 per cent decrease compared to October and a decrease of 57.5 per cent compared to November 2021.

“The trends we’ve seen over the past several months will likely continue through to year-end,” said Sandra Benz, President of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board. “While rate hikes have effectively put many buyers and sellers in a holding pattern, we’re still seeing relatively quick turnover for all housing categories, indicating robust opportunities for properties that are strategically priced.”

The Board received 1,703...

While typically a quiet month of market activity based on seasonal patterns, November home sale and listing totals lagged below the region’s long-term averages.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,614 in November 2022, a 52.9 per cent decrease from the 3,428 sales recorded in November 2021, and a 15.2 per cent decrease from the 1,903 homes sold in October 2022.

Last month’s sales were 36.9 per cent below the 10-year November sales average.

“With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels.” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the December...

Vancouver, BC – November 14, 2022.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,242 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2022, a decrease of 45.5 per cent from October 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $932,979, a 3.1 per cent decrease from $963,011 recorded in October 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 47.2 per cent decline from the same time last year.

“Sales activity remains slow across the province and inventories appear to be plateauing,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While prices have fallen from peak levels reached in early 2022, average prices have recently leveled off.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 26.3 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $73.3 billion. Residential unit sales were down 33 per cent to 72,824 units, while the average MLS® residential price...

Vancouver, BC – November 8, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to decline 34.4 per cent from a record high 2021 to 82,345 units this year. In 2023, MLS® residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 11.4 per cent to 72,960 units.

“The factors that drove unprecedented housing market activity over the past two years, including record low mortgage rates, buyer preference for extra space and the ability to work remotely, are now unwinding,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “As a result, there has been a significant shift in the housing market, which we anticipate will continue through 2023.”

With continued high-interest rates and what looks like a difficult 2023 ahead for the Canadian economy, we anticipate that market activity is going to fall below normal levels next year. On...

SURREY, BC – Fraser Valley housing market sales for October remained relatively unchanged from last month as prices dipped slightly across all categories.

In October, the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) processed 901 sales on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®), an increase of 0.4 per cent compared to last month and a 53.5 per cent decrease compared to this time last year.

The Board received 2,186 new listings in October, a decrease of 3.8 per cent compared to September, and on par with October 2021. The month ended with a total active inventory of 5,642, a decrease of 2.8 per cent from last month but up 63.7 per cent compared to October 2021.

With a sales-to-active listings ratio of 16 per cent, the overall market was again balanced for the fifth straight month after a prolonged sellers’ market earlier in the year. (The market is considered balanced when the sales-to-active listings ratio is between 12 per cent and 20 per cent.)

“These trends suggest...

Home sale activity across the Metro Vancouver housing market continued to trend well below historical averages in October.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,903 in October 2022, a 45.5 per cent decrease from the 3,494 sales recorded in October 2021, and a 12.8 per cent increase from the 1,687 homes sold in September 2022.

Last month’s sales were 33.3 per cent below the 10-year October sales average.

“Inflation and rising interest rates continue to dominate headlines, leading many buyers and sellers to assess how these factors impact their housing options,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytics said. “With sales remaining near historic lows, the number of active listings continues to inch upward, causing home prices to recede from the record highs set in the spring of 2022.”

There were 4,033 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for...