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Housing Market Activity Remains Slow in November


Vancouver, BC – December 13, 2022.


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,512 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November 2022, a decrease of 50.8 per cent from November 2021 and about 30 per cent below a historical average November. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $906,785 an 8.6 per cent decrease from $992,245 recorded in November 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.1 billion, a 55 per cent decline from the same time last year.


“A lot has changed in 2022,” said Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist. “This time last year, home sales were near a record for November, home prices were accelerating, and mortgage rates were less than half of current levels. Elevated mortgage rates will continue to constrain sales activity, though with the Bank of Canada nearing the end of its tightening cycle and benchmark bond yields falling, mortgage rate relief may be on the horizon.”


Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 28.7 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $77.4 billion. Residential unit sales were down 34.4 per cent to 77,376 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 8.6 per cent to $1 million.   
 


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Highlights


  • Bond yield volatility surges through the Fall.
 
  • The Canadian economy may be starting its descent into a recession.
 
  • A Bank of Canada pivot in 2023?


Mortgage Rate Outlook


The relative calm in the mortgage markets contrasts with the unprecedented volatility in the bond market. From just the second half of October to early November, Canadian bond yields experienced three of the top 25 most significant daily moves over the past 20 years. Indeed, the bond market seems to be evaluating and re-evaluating the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate path with each data release and announcement. Interestingly, even with the still persistently high Canadian inflation in October, bond yields have fallen and are now at levels last seen in early October.

Despite the decline in bond yields from where they peaked in early October, we have not seen an adjustment to five-year fixed rates as lenders wait for a clear signal on the direction of their funding costs. If five-year bond yields...

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Vancouver, BC – November 14, 2022.


The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,242 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October 2022, a decrease of 45.5 per cent from October 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $932,979, a 3.1 per cent decrease from $963,011 recorded in October 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.9 billion, a 47.2 per cent decline from the same time last year.

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“Sales activity remains slow across the province and inventories appear to be plateauing,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While prices have fallen from peak levels reached in early 2022, average prices have recently leveled off.”


Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 26.3 per cent from the same period in 2021 to $73.3 billion. Residential unit sales were down 33 per cent to 72,824 units, while the average MLS® residential price...

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Vancouver, BC – November 8, 2022. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2022 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.


Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in BC are forecast to decline 34.4 per cent from a record high 2021 to 82,345 units this year. In 2023, MLS® residential sales are forecast to fall an additional 11.4 per cent to 72,960 units.


“The factors that drove unprecedented housing market activity over the past two years, including record low mortgage rates, buyer preference for extra space and the ability to work remotely, are now unwinding,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “As a result, there has been a significant shift in the housing market, which we anticipate will continue through 2023.”


With continued high-interest rates and what looks like a difficult 2023 ahead for the Canadian economy, we anticipate that market activity is going to fall below normal levels next year. On...

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Vancouver, BC – October 12, 2022.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,977 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2022, a decrease of 45.8 per cent from September 2021. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $927,119, a 1.7 per cent increase from $912,008 recorded in September 2021. Total sales dollar volume was $4.6 billion, a 44.9 per cent decline from the same time last year.
 
“Mortgage qualifying continues to be a significant hurdle for many potential buyers as interest rates rise,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “In addition, many trends that drove demand in smaller markets, such as remote work and the quest for affordable space, have faded in prominence. As a result, we see a stronger pullback in markets outside of major metropolitan areas.”
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down...
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